Inflation is good...the alternatives are not!

The UK has seen inflation rates gradually falling in recent times, with recent falls appearing to accelerate. There is no guarantee that this trend will continue, but with current inflation rates standing at 2.3% RPI (Retail Prices Index) and 1.2% CPI (Consumer Prices Index) in the year to September 2014 (source: Office for National Statistics), the possibility of stagflation, and even deflation, and their consequences, need to be revisited. 

As you will see, inflation, believe it or not, can have its benefits.

Stagflation

The term 'stagflation' refers to a combination of ‘stagnation’ and ‘inflation’. Stagflation is an economic phenomenon characterised by slow economic growth and rising prices. The term was first coined in the 1960s in the UK to describe the combination of a stagnant economy, increasing unemployment and rapidly rising inflation owing to dramatic upward movements in world oil prices. Stagflation hit the UK hard in the 1970s, as rising inflation and lack of employment opportunities stifled economic growth. 

There are a range of theories about why stagflation occurs. Keynesian economists cite supply shocks as the cause, for example rapidly rising oil or food costs. Others blame excessive growth in the supply of money – as Milton Friedman described, “too much money chasing too few goods”. It has also been argued that stagflation is just a natural part of the modern economic cycle or that political and social structures are responsible for the phenomenon.

Whatever the cause, stagflation raises serious dilemmas for economic policy because actions designed to reduce unemployment may exacerbate inflation, and vice versa.

Deflation

Deflation is the opposite of inflation - a general decline in the price of goods and services. It occurs when the inflation rate becomes negative, i.e. when the inflation rate falls below 0%. Deflation is often caused by a reduction in the money or credit supply, although it can also be caused by a decrease in spending by the state, the consumer or the financial community. Deflation increases the real value of money over time. This is because consumers will hold back on purchases of goods and services with the expectation that the price of these will fall over time. This fall in demand, combined with an increase in the real value of debt, leads to increased unemployment, which in turn can lead to economic depression, as seen in the US between 1930 and 1933 when the rate of deflation was rapid, banks failed and unemployment peaked at 25% of the population. 

Japan: 20 years of deflation

Japan has experienced deflation and its effects since the mid-1990s. The initial shock came in the early 1990s with the bursting of the economic ‘bubble’ of super-inflated property and stock market prices. The subsequent collapse lasted for more than a decade, as the slump in demand caused by the bursting of the asset bubble resulted in Japanese firms being unable to raise sales prices and cutting wages and employment as a consequence. From the late 1990s onwards, wages began to fall faster than prices and deflation became entrenched. With no incentive for firms to invest, the economy became trapped in deflation, with falling prices, falling wages and falling investment combining to maintain the downward pressure.

Is there a lesson here for Europe and the UK?

Firms in the Eurozone are responding to the lack of demand and their inability to impose price rises with a conviction that cutting labour costs is the route back to competitiveness. This is worryingly reminiscent of the vicious circle in which Japan became trapped in the 1990s and the threat of deflation is therefore of real concern to Eurozone leaders.

Summary

It will be interesting to see how the next few months pan out for the UK economy and the way that the Bank of England uses its financial tools to control, where possible, the outcomes. Inflation, against its alternatives noted above, can have its ‘benefits’. With many now suggesting that Bank Base Rates (currently 0.5% pa) will stay at this level until summer 2015, the effect of inflation or stagflation….or worse, could have a real effect on the value of the money we have to spend over time.

No individual pension/ financial advice is provided during the course of this blog.

If you would like guidance and advice on your income planning for the future then please contact the team at Chapters Financial at either our Guildford (01483 578800) or Woking (01483 330800) offices.

Keith Churchouse BA Hons FPFS
Director, Chapters Financial Limited
Chartered Financial Planner
Certified Financial Planner
ISO22222 Personal Financial Planner

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.

Independent Scotland. The (close) result is in!

I have watched the debate about the possible divide of our United Kingdom union with interest over the last few weeks. Let's face it, media coverage has made it unavoidable, but from a fiscal perspective with good reason. I remain surprised by the panicked 'surprise' of our senior politicians of all denominations that around 10 or so days before the crucial Referendum vote they realised that this was going to happen and was not just an idle threat.

Having now worked in the UK financial services world for 29 years, I started in the mid-80's with the introduction of 'Yuppies' and excess before experiencing my first economic recession at the end of that decade. What was instilled in me from this tender age was the strength (and at the time power) of Sterling as a global currency. I maintain that sadly we as a nation underestimate the real value of Sterling (or GBP) in the new digital-by-default era that we live in. This is especially relevant when we view the slow if not stopped progress of the Euro as a currency example.

Economies run in cycles. As I suggested in my book, The Recession is Over, Time to Grow, produced in the late spring of last year, an economy is like carrying a bucket of water. When it sloshes one way (prosperity), it will surely slosh the other way on the rebound (recession). The cycle is usually (not guaranteed) 10-12 years and this might point to a prosperous decade ahead with economic turbulence in the early years of the 2020's.

The arguments and convictions proffered by the 'Yes' campaign were strong and cannot now be ignored by Westminster. With Scotland now secure (for the time being) in our union, I have no doubt that this has whetted the appetite of other regions to request additional and new autonomy. The physical landscape of the UK will not change, but the economic outlook for us all may look very different.

Yours Aye

Summary

If you would like to consider the points noted above further then please do not hesitate to contact the team at Chapters Financial, who will be able to help you further with your pension enquiries. No individual advice is provided during the course of this blog. If you would like to receive further information regarding your own individual situation and circumstances, please contact the Chapters Financial team in either Guildford or Woking.

Keith Churchouse BA Hons FPFS
Director, Chapters Financial Limited
Chartered Financial Planner
Certified Financial Planner
ISO22222 Personal Financial Planner

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.

Chapters Financial Investment Committee / The US Economy

Each client and enquirer has a different view and approach to investment. They are all different and this is only natural.

Many retail advisory propositions also have different views on the way funds in whatever format (Pensions, Investments, ISA’s as examples) should be invested, some preferring passive investment over more actively managed planning.

Over the last 9+ years, Chapters Financial has always preferred an actively managed approach to investment. We believe this adds greater value to our client proposition. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

To further this active investment strategy approach to investments, Chapters Financial Limited maintains and updates a regular view of the investment markets. We obviously have our own opinions (if you know the team at Chapters Financial you will know that they are not a shy group!), and add to our robust procedures by consulting with an independent specialist, Steven Williams, Director at Cormorant Capital Strategies Limited on a quarterly basis.

More detail on the work of Cormorant Capital Strategies Limited can be found here: http://www.cormorantcapitalstrategies.com/
Chapters Financial Limited is not responsible for the content of external webpages.

At our last Investment Committee Meeting in January 2014, we considered many investment areas. As an example, we looked at the US sector and I have received additional feedback and comment from Steven Williams, which is detailed below:

There is a good chance that 2014 will be the year that the US economy escapes the mire that has characterised the last five years or so. Certainly the conditions for continued progress are in place.

The US job market is strengthening. The unemployment rate stands at 7.0%, nowhere near the sub-5% pre-crisis levels but much improved on the 10% rate in 2009. With non-farm payrolls increasing at a rate close to 200,000 per month, further improvements in the employment situation ought to follow. In addition, the necessary process of deleveraging is maturing. US banks can boast of greater than average rates of tier-1 capital, non-financial corporate profit margins have seldom been wider and, according to Moody’s economy.com, the ‘average share of after-tax income that households must devote to servicing debt is as low as it has been since 1980’. Furthermore, consumer confidence – which suffered a knock during the government shut-down - has rebounded. It seems consumers are cognisant of improving conditions now and expectant of continued improvement to come. Of course, the outlook is not without risks to the downside.

I count three major risks to the outlook for the US economy. The first, and most dangerous, is that of exogenous shock – a genuine surprise. The only insight I can offer into such an event is that they occur more frequently than most investors expect and that at this time the US, in common with other regional economies, is remarkably vulnerable. On the other hand, most investors are wearily familiar with the second and third risks on my list. 2014, just like 2013, will be characterised by the political battle for control of the budget, including more wrangling over the debt ceiling. Finally, the Federal Reserve will be keen to continue to taper its present stimulus package and a disorderly exit has the potential to upset financial markets across the globe (investors in emerging market economies beware).

But, for all of this analysis, investors ought to be aware that asset prices and the wider economy do not move in lock-step. Whilst there is, I think, an absence of compelling evidence to suggest that equity markets are significantly over-priced there is equally a lack of evidence to suggest the counter.

Steven Williams, Director at Cormorant Capital Strategies Limited

No individual advice has been given in the course of this blog. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Investment values can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed.

If you would like to discuss the investment opportunities with regards to your own individual situation and circumstances or any aspects of financial planning, both personal and business (SME), then please contact the team, either in Guildford or Woking.

Keith Churchouse FPFS
Chartered Financial Planner
ISO22222 Certified Financial Planner

Chapters Financial Limited 

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899

Autumn Statement 2013…..What could it mean to you?

The Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered his Autumn Statement on Thursday 05 December 2013. Most people were expecting a rather bland statement, partly because it is still some 16 or so months away from the next General Election and partly because the UK’s financial resources are still stretched. George Osborne MP did however manage to offer a few surprises, especially towards the end of his speech, partly aimed at small business enterprises.

As with all Budgets and Autumn Statements, the ‘devil is in the detail’, and I have endeavoured to provide a brief outline to the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget Statement below. This is not an exhaustive list, but provides some of the main issues:

Personal Planning & Taxation

State Pension

A rise of £2.95 a week will be applied to the Basic State Pension in April 2014. However an increase to 68 of the State Pension Age will be applied in the middle of the 2030s and on to 69 in the latter part of the 2040s.

ISA Allowance 2014/2015

The current full ISA allowance of £11,520 will increase to £11,880 in the new tax year.

TAXES AND ALLOWANCES

• With reference to when you start paying Income Tax, the personal tax allowance will increase to £10,000 from April 2014 and be linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) thereafter.
• Due to start in the tax year 2015/2016 (from 06 April 2015) is a tax break for married couples and civil partners, which is likely to cost the Treasury about £700m pa, enables them to transfer £1,000 of income tax allowance to their spouse / civil partner.
• Capital gains tax (CGT) will be applied on future gains made by the sale of residential property in the UK by non-residents from April 2015.
• Free school lunches from September 2014 will be made available to infant pupils (Reception, Year 1 and Year 2) at state schools in England, this will cost about £600m a year.
• Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which purchase shares will not have to pay Stamp Duty on the purchase.

Business & Charities

• Business rate increases will be capped at 2% instead of linking it to inflation (as measured by the RPI) in England and Wales. Re-occupation relief will see some retail premises in England receive discount (of 50%) on their business rates.
• New tax relief will be introduced for investment in social enterprises and new social impact bonds from April 2014. This may be of interest to Charities and alike.
• For approximately 1.5 million jobs for young people (under 21 years old), the Employer National Insurance contributions will be removed from April 2015.
• Over the next two years an extra 20,000 apprenticeships will be created.

In addition to these points, there was significant news on the UK economy.

ECONOMIC GROWTH

• This year the growth forecasts were revised from 0.6% to 1.4% (2013), for next year up from 1.8% to 2.4% (2014), and to 2.2% (2015), 2.6% (2016), 2.7% (2017) and 2.7% (2018).
• Support for British businesses of export finance capacity available increased to £50bn.
• Scheme with the aim of helping 50,000 more people start their own businesses via an increase in start-up loans.
• The Office for National Statistics has amended their figures for GDP in 2008/09 from a decline of 6.3% to a decline of 7.2%. This effectively wiped £112bn from the UK Economy.
• The “underlying deficit" in the UK was changed down to 6.8% for this year and 5.6% for next year.

Summary

No individual advice has been given in the course of this blog. This summary is not an extensive or exhaustive list of the Autumn Budget Statement. We hope that some of these highlights are of interest to your future financial planning.

If you would like to discuss any matter in the Autumn Statement with regards to your own individual situation and circumstances or any aspects of financial planning, both personal and business (SME), then please contact the team, either in Guildford or Woking.

Keith G Churchouse FPFS
Director
Financial Planner
Chapters Financial Limited

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.

USA Leading or UK Lagging?

We have all witnessed a degree of increased globalisation over the last 20 years as a result of the information age.  Many large corporations have expanded their global presence and ventured more into overseas markets than ever before. This in turn has led to the major stock markets, and correspondingly the indices, being more closely correlated over time. 

We are all very aware of the Credit Crunch and the following aftermath in the markets, in currencies, cash-flow and economies around the world. However, we are now starting to witness much more positive data regarding the recovery of the UK economy as well as that of the USA. 

Obviously past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. 

This raises the question, are they recovering at the same rate?

USA Leading?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed above 16,000 for the first time on Thursday 21 November 2013, finishing at 16,009.99. This has seen the index growing over 22% from 02 January 2013, when the index opened at 13,104.30.

Even looking at the S&P 500 Index, which some believe to be a better ‘yardstick’ of the US stock market than the DJIA, this has risen 25% from opening at 1,426.19 on 02 January 2013 to close at 1,795.85 on 21 November 2013.

UK Lagging?

In comparison, the rise in the FTSE100 (as an example) is somewhat short of this increase, showing a growth of just 13% from an opening of 5,897.19 on 02 January 2013 to close at 6,681.33 on 21 November 2013. Therefore, if we are using the FTSE100 as the measurement of the recovery of the UK equity market, the UK is only recovering at approximately half the rate of the USA. This is an interesting observation, rather than a direct comparison. 

Some might argue that the difference could be due to the Sterling to Dollar exchange rate at these dates, which is an important consideration. However, the currency exchange rates on these dates were £1 = $1.6249 (02 January 2013) and £1 = $1.6199 (21 November 2013), therefore the impact of the exchange rate is less than 0.5% between these dates.

Which market / economy will correct and when?

The soon to retire Mr Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already indicated that he may taper or slow down the fiscal stimulus into the US economy. Many economists believe that the markets have already factored in his statement in this regard, but if they have not, the impact may not occur until March 2014. 

The Bank of England has provided its own stimulus to the economy in the form of Quantitative Easing (QE) to the tune of £375BN. In comparison with the USA, it has not increased this QE programme since July 2012.

It is believed that Mr Bernanke will continue to signal the reduction in the stimulus as the US data on production, employment and other economic factors improve. This could mean that the indices in the US stock markets (DJIA / S&P 500) will not rise when compared with the UK index (FTSE 100) as the fiscal stimulus package in the USA is reduced and eventually stopped. How long will this take? I believe it will be at least 12 months before we see a significant correction between the correlation of the USA and UK equity markets, possibly even longer.

No individual advice has been given in the course of this blog. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Investment values can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed.

If you would like to discuss the investment opportunities with regards to your own individual situation and circumstances or any aspects of financial planning, both personal and business (SME), then please contact the team, either in Guildford or Woking.

Simon Hewitt BSc (Hons) DipPFS

Financial Planner

Chapters Financial Limited

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.

Investment Performance & Review 2013

2013 has started with many clients seeing positive returns on their investments, pensions and other holdings. It is always good to report such positive news, with many clients that we have undertaken reviews for being pleased with the progress made. This does not mean that we will not see additional volatility into the future. However is it encouraging to see fund values increasing in many instances. 

We gather information on investments from many sources to ensure and maintain a robust advice process. One source is our colleague, Stephen Williams, Managing Director at Cormorant Capital Strategies Ltd, who notes: 

Output and employment have sustained a curious push-me-pull-me trend in recent months. The first quarter of 2013 was no different. On the ILO* measure (perhaps the most credible of all the different measures); unemployment has drifted higher from 7.8% of the available workforce to 7.9%. At the same time the year-on-year increase in average earnings continued to slow; it now stands at just 0.8%, a full 2% lower than general inflation. In contrast to this increasingly gloomy backdrop came a surprisingly upbeat initial estimate for economic growth at 0.3% compared with the previous quarter (or 0.6% compared with a year earlier).

According to the Office for National Statistics the first quarter, it seems, was witness to a higher rate of growth than most had come to expect. Sensible observers were expecting a marginal gain (or decline) in the order of 0.1% to 0.2%. Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility were predicting that a triple-dip recession would be narrowly avoided. It was broad-based expansion in the service sector that led the growth, again (0.6% contributing 0.5%). Meanwhile production was flat and construction contracted, again (-2.5% contributing -0.2%).

Of course, that we describe growth in the region of 0.3% as ‘upbeat’ is testament to the duration of the current economic malaise. A full five years on, GDP remains 2.6% below the pre-recession level. Nevertheless, there are positive signs; equity markets are buoyant and eased credit conditions has inflated house prices a little. But both of these will need to be sustained if, in the absence of a sudden and somewhat unlikely rebalanced economy, we are to see any kind of momentum toward a real recovery.

Stephen Williams

Managing Director
Cormorant Capital Strategies Ltd

*International Labour Organization

The team at Chapters Financial has spent much time over the last years with existing clients and new enquirers viewing existing holdings and making changes where appropriate to meet both their attitude to investment risk and the objective of their plan, such as capital growth or income.

If you would welcome a review then please let us know and we can arrange to meet at a suitable time to undertake any agreed changes that may be appropriate in your circumstances. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Fund values can fall as well as rise.

This Blog provides general information and should not be used as individual advice.
If you, your business or charity would like to receive individual advice on the issues of investment or pension planning , then please contact the team at Chapters Financial Limited on 01483 578800.

Keith G. Churchouse FPFS
ISO22222 Certified Financial Planner
Director and Financial Planner 

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate Tax advice

Where it stops, nobody knows!

It's been an interesting few weeks in various investment markets. With much optimism in the lead up to the American election and with President Obama safely re-installed into the White House, the hangover from the party seems to have set in. With various hopes and fears once again emerging from Europe, there seem to be many 'jitters' in a few of the major financial indexes. Overall, the markets have remained relatively constant over the last 6 months, and using the example of the FTSE 100 (not always the best measure) as a reasonable UK local market equity index, we can see the results.

We can see that from 01 May 2012, the index stood at 5,812.20 and by 10 November 2012 this had moved to 5,769.70. For additional past reference, the FTSE 100 stood at:

Date	FTSE 100 Index Value
10 November 2011	5,444.80
10 November 2010	5,816.90
10 November 2009	5,230.50
10 November 2008	4,403.90

Approximate Figures (Source uk.finance.yahoo.com)

You will note from these results that past performance is no guarantee of future performance and that fund values can fall as well as rise.

I am sure that within the next 4-6 weeks we will see the usual seasonal speculation as to where the FTSE 100 index will be at the end of 2013. I have to admit that I think that 'UK Plc' looks in far better condition, with its various austere fiscal policies, to face the significant and continuing challenges that I believe the global economy has to share with its many contributors over 2013 and beyond. Bearing in mind that the highest peak of the FTSE100 (on 30 December 1999/ 6,930.20 points) was now some 13 years ago (although it got close again to this level in late 2007), it does raise the question as to when the current Index 'value' mould that we have become very accustomed too will be broken, if at all.

Only time will tell, however, it is interesting to note (although not a direct comparison) that the American Dow Jones Index's highest point in past years was 14,164.53 points (09 October 2007) and this was nearly reached again in 2012 (13,610.15 points at 13 October 2012). With the fears of a post-election 'Fiscal Cliff' looming (seems to be the latest buzz phrase) I am pleased to see that this past index high milestone has been approached again in such an economic climate.

Is it time for the UK and its various Indices to do the same. As the title suggests, 'Where it stops.........'

Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Fund values can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. No individual advice or fund recommendation has been provided in the content of this Blog.

Chapters Financial Limited can help you with your savings and investment allocation and planning.

Keith G Churchouse, Director
Chartered Financial Planner
ISO 22222 Certified Financial Planner
Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, number 402899.