Coming! Ready or not! Base rate rise in 2014?

It was great to speak to Danny Pike on BBC Surrey and BBC Sussex last week about the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney's, speech at Mansion House in London on the significant possibility that the Base Rate will rise from its current historic level of 0.5% pa. You can hear this radio slot here:

The issue is not that rates will rise, but that we may not see the old 'norm' of 5.00% pa -the Monetary Policy Committee believe 2.5% to 3.00% pa in around 2/3 years’ time is more likely. There is no guarantee where they will settle in the future and at what rate. The only certainty is the uncertainty, but the trend is certainly pointing up. The strength of Sterling as a currency jumped in the aftermath of the speech. I think rates will now rise this year.

It was also good to discuss the positive economic data available which has moved faster than anticipated to put pressure on the Bank of England to delve into its tool box of instruments to keep the UK economy from overheating.

Data recently available provides the following examples:

• Unemployment falling to 6.6% (2.16M, Source: BBC 11 June 2014)
• House price indices rising quickly
• Positive and upgraded GDP figures (Gross Domestic Product/ effectively what we produce as a nation in a period)
• Sterling strong
• Manufacturing increasing well
• Stock markets at near highs
• Inflation falling

These are only examples and individually may not have significant impact. However, as a group together, they have all moved positively and at a pace unexpected by some. Obviously, past performance is not an indication that these will continue or improve further.

The impact of this possible change is likely to be felt by individuals and businesses alike. For companies, they might find their product costs for export increase, along with any borrowing costs they may have.

For individuals, the impact will have different effects on borrowers and savers.

For borrowers, the cost of their finance is likely to increase if not on a fixed rate arrangement. They should prepare and interrogate their household budget, adjusting costs now to tuck away a buffer against these increased costs where possible.

For savers, their deposit rate 'drought ' may be coming to an end. This may be dependent on banks and building societies passing these future rate rises on to customers, although I am sure they will not hesitate for borrowers. As I noted in my radio interview, the currently attractive Pensioner Bond offering at the beginning of 2015 looks good now. This view may change in time as rates rise steadily.

The message from this blog is be ready, however you could be affected. Reviewing your financial planning now, over the summer of 2014, could well be a wise use of time to prepare for the changes ahead.

The Chapters teams in Guildford and Woking are well placed to advise you on savings and financial planning for your finances. No individual advice is provided during the course of this Blog. If you would like to receive further information regarding your own individual situation and circumstances, please contact the Chapters team in either Guildford or Woking.

Keith Churchouse, FPFS
Chartered Financial Planner
ISO22222 Certified Financial Planner

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.

Any Rabbits in there Chancellor?

The annual 'Groundhog day' of the Chancellor proudly posing in front of his Number 11 Residence with his team has come and gone as we know. The annual heckle from the camera-clicking tabloid journalists was louder this year in anticipation of pre-election give-aways with the chirp of 'any rabbits in there Chancellor?', referring to his red Budget box and the possible trick of magic-ing wealth from austerity.

This year, 2014, he really did 'pull the rabbit from the hat' with the furthest reaching changes to the way pension benefits can be drawn during my lifetime. Indeed, I think with a few strokes of his ink pen, some of the pension exams studied over many years become obsolete over the course of the next 12 months when the full effect of these changes will come to fruition. Please do not think I am being negative about the far greater flexibility being encouraged, far from it, I think financial planning and retirement planning will boom over the next decade because of these changes. However, I do have some cautionary concerns that there will be spend, spend, spend with the ultimate consequence that they will be reliant on the state. Sure, basic State Pension benefits are increasing in the next 2 years to a level of approximately £145 per week, but this is unlikely to meet the living needs of many.

Don't forget, and I don't think this is a political statement, the Government, irrespective of their persuasion, is strapped for cash. Cash is generated from tax, tax is charged on pension output (excluding tax free cash), and if many release this early without the caution of stretching the yield across their lifetime, the 'tax take ' could well be quicker. It should also be noted that this new strategy is a bit of a cash-flow gamble for the Treasury. The normal system of 'Annuitising' pension income is achieved by purchasing Gilts. With the need/ preference for annuity purchase now seemingly being removed, the need for Gilt purchases will fall, reducing cash-flow to the Government. It is reported the next weekend that four of the larger Annuity providers had suspended annuity business (Prudential, Aviva, Friends Life and Royal London) and I am sure others will follow. One could argue that the Government us switching their Gilt 'loan' cash-flow for straight non-repayable tax income. The cash-flow effects will be very interesting, possibly fuelling the economy....and clearly the Government.

As a final note, it was good to see that the Chancellor proposes that those reaching retirement for private pension schemes should receive financial planning advice before drawing pension benefits over the age of 55 and we would very much agree with this.

If you would like to consider your retirement benefits and the way these can be used to meet your needs, both now and into the future, then please speak to the team at Chapters Financial in Woking or Guildford.

No individual pension/ financial advice is provided during the course of this blog.

Keith Churchouse FPFS
Director
Chartered Financial Planner
ISO 22222 Personal Financial Planner

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.

Autumn Statement 2013…..What could it mean to you?

The Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered his Autumn Statement on Thursday 05 December 2013. Most people were expecting a rather bland statement, partly because it is still some 16 or so months away from the next General Election and partly because the UK’s financial resources are still stretched. George Osborne MP did however manage to offer a few surprises, especially towards the end of his speech, partly aimed at small business enterprises.

As with all Budgets and Autumn Statements, the ‘devil is in the detail’, and I have endeavoured to provide a brief outline to the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget Statement below. This is not an exhaustive list, but provides some of the main issues:

Personal Planning & Taxation

State Pension

A rise of £2.95 a week will be applied to the Basic State Pension in April 2014. However an increase to 68 of the State Pension Age will be applied in the middle of the 2030s and on to 69 in the latter part of the 2040s.

ISA Allowance 2014/2015

The current full ISA allowance of £11,520 will increase to £11,880 in the new tax year.

TAXES AND ALLOWANCES

• With reference to when you start paying Income Tax, the personal tax allowance will increase to £10,000 from April 2014 and be linked to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) thereafter.
• Due to start in the tax year 2015/2016 (from 06 April 2015) is a tax break for married couples and civil partners, which is likely to cost the Treasury about £700m pa, enables them to transfer £1,000 of income tax allowance to their spouse / civil partner.
• Capital gains tax (CGT) will be applied on future gains made by the sale of residential property in the UK by non-residents from April 2015.
• Free school lunches from September 2014 will be made available to infant pupils (Reception, Year 1 and Year 2) at state schools in England, this will cost about £600m a year.
• Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which purchase shares will not have to pay Stamp Duty on the purchase.

Business & Charities

• Business rate increases will be capped at 2% instead of linking it to inflation (as measured by the RPI) in England and Wales. Re-occupation relief will see some retail premises in England receive discount (of 50%) on their business rates.
• New tax relief will be introduced for investment in social enterprises and new social impact bonds from April 2014. This may be of interest to Charities and alike.
• For approximately 1.5 million jobs for young people (under 21 years old), the Employer National Insurance contributions will be removed from April 2015.
• Over the next two years an extra 20,000 apprenticeships will be created.

In addition to these points, there was significant news on the UK economy.

ECONOMIC GROWTH

• This year the growth forecasts were revised from 0.6% to 1.4% (2013), for next year up from 1.8% to 2.4% (2014), and to 2.2% (2015), 2.6% (2016), 2.7% (2017) and 2.7% (2018).
• Support for British businesses of export finance capacity available increased to £50bn.
• Scheme with the aim of helping 50,000 more people start their own businesses via an increase in start-up loans.
• The Office for National Statistics has amended their figures for GDP in 2008/09 from a decline of 6.3% to a decline of 7.2%. This effectively wiped £112bn from the UK Economy.
• The “underlying deficit" in the UK was changed down to 6.8% for this year and 5.6% for next year.

Summary

No individual advice has been given in the course of this blog. This summary is not an extensive or exhaustive list of the Autumn Budget Statement. We hope that some of these highlights are of interest to your future financial planning.

If you would like to discuss any matter in the Autumn Statement with regards to your own individual situation and circumstances or any aspects of financial planning, both personal and business (SME), then please contact the team, either in Guildford or Woking.

Keith G Churchouse FPFS
Director
Financial Planner
Chapters Financial Limited

Chapters Financial Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, number 402899.