Our busiest months of the trading
year are April/May and November. This has always been the case throughout my
nearly 30 years in financial services. Many can understand the April/May date
because of the end of the tax year (05th April) and all this
involves, including pension and ISA contributions. The November uplift is
usually a surprise and this is because many finalise their financial planning
at the end of the year before the festive season starts. Almost a final catch
up before the year closes. From an economic viewpoint, it has been a
significant year.
With the FTSE100 starting the
year at 5,897 points (approx.), my open year prediction was that we would end
the year with a starting digit of 7,XXX?. It looks like I might have to temper
this prediction. (Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance).
The FTSE100 is not an indicator of the health of the economy though and there
are many other important and relevant economic factors to consider, examples of
which might be:
- Foreign investment money stoking a possibly overheating London Property market is filtering through to the rest of the UK.
- The Government’s funding initiative of the 'HomeBuy' scheme, generating greater flexibility for usually First Time Buyers (FTB) to enter the property market. With recent reports that the average FTB was entering the property market in their 30's, action had to be taken.
- Cash deposit yields falling ever further with now confirmed low rates (through ‘Forward Guidance’) from the dynamic Canadian Banker that heads the Bank of England (BoE). Bank Base Rate has remained at 0.5% pa throughout the year to date.
- Some banks and lenders being more approachable for SME/ Small Business finance.
- Growing Building/ construction starts ups helping with the stubbornly high unemployment data (October 2013 2.47M), which is starting to show falls (possibly quicker than Mr Carney thought).
- Largest number of Initial Public Offerings (IPO’s) since the start of the recession on London.
- Inflation (Consumer Prices Index/CPI) remaining above the current BoE target of 2.00% pa, at 2.20% (October 2013)
Be under no illusion, our economic market has changed and I believe is
in the final throws of shaking off the shackles of recession. This is a changed
beast and is going to move forward, I think quicker than many of us expect. As
you have seen in our previous November Blog, we have also seen the
implementation of the Retail Distribution Review (RDR) in 2013 which, for some,
has been a welcome change to the delivery of financial advice to the public in
the UK.
I hope, like Chapters Financial Limited, that you found 2013 a positive
year for your financial planning. The flow of economics points to 2014 being a
positive year, although I am sure there will be volatility along the way, and a
positive outcome is not guaranteed. However, taking high quality financial
planning advice throughout the year is worthwhile to ensure that you make the
best of the economic climate, whatever it transpires to be.
If you would like to receive further information
with regards to your own individual situation and circumstances, then please
contact the team, either in Guildford or Woking.
Keith Churchouse FPFS
Director
ISO22222 Personal Financial Planner
Chartered Financial Planner
Director
ISO22222 Personal Financial Planner
Chartered Financial Planner